We need to focus on Ukraine's economy now.
 | By Suein Hwang Business, Economics and Technology Editor, Opinion |
Russia's unilateral invasion of Ukraine spurred one of the largest-scale economic sanctions efforts in recent history, with experts predicting near-disastrous consequences for the Russian economy and possibly also for its president, Vladimir Putin. |
Almost one year later, those dire consequences have yet to materialize: The International Monetary Fund expects the Russian economy to see a small recovery of 0.3 percent in 2023. British G.D.P., by comparison, is expected to fall by 0.6 percent. And now Russia is reportedly widening and intensifying its assaults on Ukraine in what could be its largest offensive since the first weeks of the war. |
What happened? "The limited efficacy of the sanctions is due to Russia's policy response, its size, its commercial position and the importance of nonaligned countries in the world economy," writes Nicholas Mulder, a historian of 20th-century European and international history at Cornell University and the author of "The Economic Weapon: The Rise of Sanctions as a Tool of Modern War." |
Certainly, Russia's economy is suffering consequences, including the slow damage wrought by a shortage of expertise, technical parts and a vast pool of talented and educated professionals. But in the meantime, Ukraine's smaller and much weaker economy continues to be pushed to a breaking point. Mulder points out that, defense assistance aside, the health of the Ukrainian economy is a factor in the country's ability to defend and sustain itself. The work of strengthening Ukraine's economy, he writes, "cannot wait until the war is over." |
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