February 7, 2023

By David Leonhardt and Claire Moses

Good morning. Time is running out and cold weather is impeding the search for survivors after a major earthquake hit Turkey.

Searching for survivors in Adana, Turkey, early this morning.Sergey Ponomarev for The New York Times

Digging for Survivors

The earthquakes were horrific on their own. First — shortly after 4 a.m. local time on Monday — came Turkey's strongest quake in more than 80 years, followed hours later by an unusually powerful aftershock. The latest death count is more than 5,000 and will probably rise.

Compounding the damage are three existing crises in the region where the quakes hit, near the Syrian border in southern Turkey: first, Syria's civil war; second, a surge of refugees into Turkey because of the war; third, economic problems in both countries.

Today's newsletter gives you the latest details and photographs from Turkey and Syria as well as an explanation of the larger problems facing the region. Those problems are complicating the recovery from the quake and will continue to do so.

Source: U.S. Geological Survey

What we know

The earthquake buckled thousands of buildings, including around 15 hospitals in Turkey and a 2,000-year-old castle. In one apartment block, residents gathered around a bonfire to stay warm. Because of aftershocks, thousands of people slept in cars or outside to avoid getting stuck in their buildings.
The area was vulnerable to a major earthquake. Older buildings with concrete frames are common. And in northern Syria, infrastructure was already fragile after years of bombardments. This map shows the destruction.
Temperatures are near freezing in much of the region, and snow or rain is forecast. When the earthquake hit, many people were asleep and had not been prepared for the cold. "This is a race against time and hypothermia," a meteorologist at Istanbul Technical University said.
About 22 hours after the earthquake, rescuers pulled a woman from the rubble. But time is running out — most rescues tend to happen within three days. More than 16,000 rescuers are involved in the search, according to Turkish state news media.
In the Turkish city of Malatya, electricity was out in many parts and there was no fuel at gas stations, said Emin Ozmen, a photographer covering the devastation for The Times. "I started walking in the most hit neighborhood. I saw dozens of collapsed buildings, but only two groups of rescuers," Emin told us. "If it's like this in a big city, I can't imagine the situation in towns and villages."
Sergey Ponomarev, another photographer for The Times, who just arrived in Iskenderun, Turkey, described a plume of black smoke rising from burning containers in the port, and the constant sound of alarms and ambulances. In another part of the city, he told us, multiple apartment buildings and a hospital collapsed. "There's a lot of dust," Sergey said. "There are quite a lot of people just sitting and watching. Probably, they spent the whole night on the street so they look very exhausted."
Governments — including those of the U.S., the E.U., India, Israel, Russia and Ukraine — sent search teams and medical squads. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey's president, declared seven days of national mourning.

Devastation in the village of Besnia, in northwestern Syria, yesterday.Omar Haj Kadour/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Crisis No. 1: Syria's war

"We kept looking up to the sky for jets," said Osama Salloum, a doctor in a part of northwestern Syria where the quakes hit. "My mind was playing tricks on me, telling me it was war again."

The region includes the city of Aleppo, the site of some of the worst fighting during Syria's decade-long civil war (which has been halted by a cease-fire since 2020). Syria's government leveled large sections of Aleppo between 2012 and 2016 and killed thousands of people. The assault succeeded, and the battle of Aleppo was a turning point that helped Syria's government effectively win the civil war.

Rebuilding since then has been limited, our colleague Raja Abdulrahim writes, and the earthquake has created an acute set of new problems. "Anywhere else in the world this would be an emergency," a spokesman for the International Rescue Committee said. "What we have in Syria is an emergency within an emergency."

Searching through the rubble in Zardana, Syria, yesterday.Mohammed Al-Rifai/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

No. 2: The refugees

The flow of Syrian refugees into Western Europe has received a lot of attention in recent years. In some countries, including Italy and Germany, it appears to have bolstered far-right political parties.

But the scale of war-related immigration to Turkey is of another order of magnitude. As The Economist writes:

At the end of 2010, just before the start of the war, Turkey had only 10,000 refugees and asylum seekers. Twelve years on, it hosts 3.6 million Syrians, more than the rest of Europe put together, plus over a million migrants from Africa, Central Asia, the Middle East and Russia. Turkey is a country transformed.

Recovering from the quakes will be even harder for refugees living in temporary quarters, such as the three "container cities" in the southeastern part of the country.

Rescuers carrying a man out of a collapsed building in Malatya, Turkey.Emin Ozmen for The New York Times

No. 3: The economy

As prices have soared across much of the world over the past few years, central banks have raised interest rates. Economists across the ideological spectrum agree with the approach (even if they disagree about the details): By making loans more expensive, the central banks depress demand and reduce inflation.

Turkey, however, has pursued a very different monetary policy. It has reduced interest rates. I'll spare you the technical arguments that its government has offered in defense of the policy, because it has failed. Annual inflation has hovered between 50 percent and 90 percent over the past year, causing hardship for many families and businesses.

The earthquakes are likely to make matters worse by disrupting production and supply chains. As the world experienced during Covid, supply-chain problems reduce the supply of goods and, by extension, often cause price increases.

Southeastern Turkey, where the quakes hit, was already one the country's poorest regions. The economic slump appears to be aggravating concerns about the influx of refugees.

Syria's economy is in even worse condition than Turkey's, because of the war. Syria's G.D.P. — which measures total economic production — fell by more than half between 2010 and 2020, our colleague Liz Alderman notes.

For more: Many organizations are aiding the rescue efforts. Here's how you can help the victims.

Continue reading the main story

THE LATEST NEWS

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International

A Ukrainian soldier cleaning a gun on Sunday.Lynsey Addario for The New York Times

Russia is preparing a new offensive in eastern Ukraine. In villages on the front line, residents again face the decision to stay or flee.
Forty-seven pro-democracy figures in Hong Kong went on trial, charged with subversion by China.
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The Chinese balloon that bumbled its way across the U.S. prompted many questions about its real intent. It's also questioning Xi Jinping's judgment.

MORNING READS

Bruce Cholst walks Sean and Sammie-Sue through the lobby of their Upper East Side building.Desiree Rios/The New York Times

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The coffee's out: Harry Styles mentioned a cafe in a lyric. Now his fans flock there.

Advice from Wirecutter: The best fitness gear.

Lives Lived: The lawyer Harry Whittington gained sudden fame in 2006 as the unintended victim of a shotgun blast by Vice President Dick Cheney. He drew more attention days later when he apologized to Cheney. Whittington died at 95.

SPORTS NEWS FROM THE ATHLETIC

Scandal: Premier League officials charged Manchester City, the reigning champion, with financial rules violations. The club could face suspension or even expulsion.

A year off: Tom Brady said he would join the Fox broadcast booth in 2024. That takes some pressure off Kevin Burkhardt and Greg Olsen, who will call Sunday's Super Bowl.

Continue reading the main story

ARTS AND IDEAS

The McMillan Memorial Library in Nairobi.Patrick Meinhardt/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

'Palaces for the people'

When the first library in Nairobi, Kenya, opened in 1931, access was restricted to white patrons. Nearly a century later, a nonprofit group is trying to turn the city's old libraries into inclusive public spaces, The Times's Abdi Latif Dahir writes.

In addition to restoring several libraries that fell into disrepair over the years, the nonprofit is working to digitize their archives, bring in more books in African languages and help people with disabilities

"Our public libraries can be glamorous spaces of storytelling," said Angela Wachuka, a Kenyan publisher. "We are here to also reclaim history, to occupy its architecture and to subvert its intended use."