Good morning. We're covering the geography of global warming, the first Republican debate and #gravetok. |
 | | Flooding in Cathedral City, Calif., on Monday.Alex Welsh for The New York Times |
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This year's heat can seem relentless, and appears to be only the beginning of a lifetime of hotter summers. It's even hot in the oceans. And then there are the wildfires, droughts and floods, which have recently hit the seeming paradises of Hawaii and California. |
The weather extremes are enough to drive some people to pick up their lives and look for more climate-friendly places to live. Jesse Keenan, a climate adaptation expert at Tulane University living in low-lying New Orleans, is among them. "Another Katrina is going to happen," he said, referring to the hurricane that struck the city in 2005. "I tell my students this: 'Within your lifetime, Tulane will no longer be a university. Your alma mater will relocate or disappear because of where it is.'" |
Are there places that are better suited to deal with climate change? Yes, experts say. The Midwest, inland Northeast and northern Great Plains are three examples in the U.S., and parts of Canada, Russia and Scandinavia could offer refuge internationally. These regions are not immune to climate problems; it's called "global" warming for a reason. But they are expected to see less of the extreme weather that a hotter planet will bring. |
Still, Americans are not moving to climate-friendly places today. If anything, many more have moved away. One of the fastest-growing U.S. cities is Phoenix, which has suffered temperatures above 110 degrees Fahrenheit for much of this summer. That trend could start to change as people endure more disasters. |
How do you know whether a location is better suited for dealing with climate change than the place you live now? Experts point to two major factors. |
The first is geography. Consider the Midwest: It is inland, away from the rising, hotter oceans and seas that will cause more floods and more intense hurricanes. Midwestern states are farther north than many others, with naturally lower temperatures. The Great Lakes and surrounding rivers provide reliable sources of water, preventing some of the worst effects of drought. These factors also apply to much of the Northeast U.S. and the northern Great Plains. |
The second factor is the ability to take in newcomers, climate refugees or not. Does the area have enough affordable housing? Are residents welcoming to outsiders? Are local and state governments preparing for population increases? If the answer to at least some of these questions is yes, you may have found yourself a potential destination. |
Some cities meet these standards. Detroit, Cincinnati and Buffalo, N.Y., are common examples. They are in regions with more climate-friendly geography. And they have one thing in common: Their populations have shrunk by the hundreds of thousands since the 1950s, leaving them with both a desire to bring people back and many empty buildings that could be turned into housing. |
Similarly, much of inland New England and the northern Great Plains have climate-friendly geography and plenty of space for people to move into. (Montana has been called the "anti-California" for its recent efforts to build more housing.) As an added benefit, these regions also offer stunning vistas and many forms of outdoor recreation. |
Experts emphasize that no place is invulnerable to climate change. Vermont is a potential climate haven because of its geography and desire to attract more people. But last month, record floods hit the state. Researchers linked them to climate change. |
That disaster highlights an important point: Better is not perfect. Climate change has an impact everywhere, even if residents can take steps to mitigate the damage. |
Many people also can't, or won't, leave their homes. Some, particularly in the poorer Global South, simply can't afford to move to avoid potential disasters. And wealthier places are not always ready for extreme weather. Hawaii's fires this month offer an example; a lack of preparedness and human errors, including possible mistakes by the state's biggest power utility, likely made the situation worse. |
The bottom line: The planet will continue warming in the coming decades, according to the most recent projections. Those rising temperatures will bring more extreme weather and more disasters. People will have to find ways to deal with those problems. In some cases, doing so may be as straightforward as installing air conditioning in more homes. But some might feel compelled to take more extreme steps, including leaving those homes behind. |
Related: "Twenty years from now, a summer like this is going to feel like a mild summer," one expert told my colleague Somini Sengupta. Read more about our future of climate extremes. |
- Eight Republican candidates meet tonight for the first debate of the 2024 presidential race. It starts at 9 p.m. Eastern; here's a guide.
- Republican candidates have already spent tens of millions on ads.
- For now, these candidates are vying to be second, behind Donald Trump, who's snubbing the debate. But one could yet secure the nomination if legal problems derail Trump's campaign.
- Why are the longest shots running? To become better known, or to win potentially valuable gigs later on.
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 | | Lowering a rescuer to the cable car.Agence France-Presse — Getty Images |
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- Rescuers pulled eight people from a broken cable car dangling hundreds of feet above a valley in Pakistan. Seven of the passengers were students.
- Brazilian authorities are investigating whether Jair Bolsonaro, the former president, illegally sold gifts he received in office, including a diamond Rolex.
- An Indian lunar lander is expected to reach the moon's surface this morning. These graphics explain the current race to the moon.
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- An influential expert panel recommended extra options for H.I.V. prevention.
- Hollywood studios released details of their latest proposal to the striking writers' union, in an apparent attempt to break the labor stalemate.
- The hot labor market has led to rapid pay increases, particularly for low-wage service jobs.
- Former Vice journalists started their own technology news publication, 404 Media.
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 | | A Mrs. Roper Romp in Providence, R.I.Sarah Meftah for The New York Times |
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Lives Lived: Betty Tyson was New York State's longest-serving female inmate when a judge overturned her murder conviction in 1998, freeing her after 25 years in prison. She died at 75. |
A W.N.B.A. record: Aces center A'ja Wilson scored 53 points in last night's win, tying the league's all-time single-game scoring record. |
White Sox shake-up: The Chicago mainstays Ken Williams and Rick Hahn are out as the team's owner embarks on a rebuild. |
 | | Nolan Pelletier |
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All the world's a stage: Lately, it seems as if grown-up theater kids run the world. Politicians, Olympians, tech entrepreneurs and even a Supreme Court justice acted in their youth. The ability to perform an outsize version of oneself — a trait that once made drama-loving teens an easy punchline — has become a strength, whether on TikTok, in a Zoom meeting or on a presidential debate stage. |
"I don't think it's like the awesomest personal quality that I have, that I want people to pay attention to me," said the MSNBC host Chris Hayes, a former theater kid. "But we live in a culture that really rewards thirst." |
 | | Armando Rafael for The New York Times |
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Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. — German |
Correction: Monday's newsletter, relying on information from the Federal Aviation Administration, referred imprecisely to the last time there was a deadly U.S. plane crash. While there was a fatal accident involving a PenAir flight in Alaska in 2019, there has not been a fatal crash involving a major U.S. carrier since 2009. |
 | Editor: David Leonhardt Deputy Editor: Amy Fiscus News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti News Staff: Lyna Bentahar, Lauren Jackson, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Claire Moses, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu News Assistant: Lauren Hard Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch |
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