Who are the RFK Jr. voters?
Rosemary Pastrick thinks Americans were "brainwashed" into accepting the Covid vaccine. She regards both major political parties as corrupt. She is disillusioned with Donald Trump and Joe Biden. And she proudly supports Robert F. Kennedy Jr. "Trump is in all these problems," said Pastrick, a 77-year-old who lives in Stanton, Mich. "He couldn't stand losing. It was like he was on his own TV show and got fired. And then Biden — he's not strong enough." Kennedy, in her view, "tells the truth. He's outspoken. As far as I know, he's not crooked." Asked what she would do if he were not on the ballot in the fall, she replied, "I would probably write him in." In a general election rematch between two familiar and unpopular major-party nominees, independent and third-party candidates, and their supporters, could take on exceptional significance in this year's presidential contest. And of those contenders, no one these days is drawing as much attention — and inspiring as much angst — as Kennedy, who, with his independent bid, has had a strong showing in some national and state polls. Kennedy questionsKennedy, an environmental lawyer, is a leading vaccine skeptic and purveyor of conspiracy theories, as my colleague Anjali Huynh wrote last summer. He is slated to announce a running mate tomorrow in Oakland, Calif. My colleague Rebecca Davis O'Brien has reported that Nicole Shanahan — a Bay Area lawyer and investor who was once married to the Google co-founder Sergey Brin — is in the running as a top contender. Kennedy has also approached the N.F.L. quarterback Aaron Rodgers and the former Minnesota governor and professional wrestler Jesse Ventura. Aside from his running mate, there are many more questions about Kennedy's candidacy. Where will he get on the ballot? What happens to his standing as voters learn about his more divisive positions? Perhaps most urgently, who are his voters? "All of these current expressions of support for Kennedy are in one sense illuminating because they show dissatisfaction with Biden and Trump," said Charles Franklin, the director of the Marquette University Law School Poll. "They're not likely to be at all good predictors of the vote next fall." Kennedy voter demographicsIt is difficult to accurately poll supporters of independent and third-party candidates. But there are a few things we do know. Some Kennedy supporters are drawn to his famous last name, even as many members of the Kennedy clan have distanced themselves from his candidacy. Some supporters are politically disengaged; some count themselves as Libertarians or political independents, and others are longtime Democrats who have soured on the party's current leadership. And he has some die-hard fans. There are environmentalists from the New York area who are familiar with his work with the Riverkeeper organization, which is among the groups credited with cleaning up New York's polluted Hudson River, as my colleague Susanne Craig wrote in a close look at Kennedy's finances.
Some appreciate his opposition to vaccine mandates, often on conspiratorial grounds. Others are simply sick of the two-party system and looking to vent their frustrations. 'Open to personal decisions'Brandon McVicker, 31, of Las Vegas, illustrates both the opportunity and the challenge for an independent candidate like Kennedy. He has heard Kennedy on several podcasts and appreciated his skepticism of Covid vaccine mandates. "I was one of the people that didn't necessarily want it but it came down to it, it was either me or my job, so I had to pony up and get it," he said, expressing interest in Kennedy. "He is open to, I guess, personal decision on a lot of stuff, especially for liberties and health care choices and stuff like that."
He said he would be inclined to vote for Kennedy. But only, he added, "if he was viable and pulled enough in the polls that I wouldn't just be throwing a vote out." Otherwise, he said, he was reluctantly leaning toward Trump. That instinct helps explain why third-party and independent candidates who start off with relatively strong polling numbers often struggle to maintain them. Partisan loyalties kick in, and "voters seem to understand that their candidate cannot win the general election and voters don't want their ballots to go to waste," said Neil Newhouse, a Republican pollster.
"But," he added, "even a few percent can help swing a state from one major party candidate to the other."
Rebecca Davis O'Brien and Ruth Igielnik contributed reporting.
A day of Trump trial developmentsFormer president Donald Trump officially has a trial date next month in a New York courtroom after losing a last-ditch attempt to have it postponed. Justice Juan Merchan of State Supreme Court reaffirmed an April 15 court date for Trump's hush-money case, rejecting an 11th-hour claim that federal prosecutors in Manhattan had acted improperly by delaying the disclosure of thousands of pages of new evidence. Trump is accused of orchestrating the cover-up of a simmering sex scandal surrounding his 2016 presidential campaign. Merchan laid into Trump's lawyers during the hearing, saying their accusations against prosecutors were "incredibly serious" but unsubstantiated by the facts. During the hearing, Trump got some unrelated good news: A state appeals court ruled that he could hold off paying a $454 million judgment in a civil fraud case if he posted a $175 million bond in the next 10 days. Trump promised to post the bond as soon as possible, but even the reduced amount of cash could strain his coffers. Meanwhile, Trump's social media company officially became a public company this morning, bolstering his net worth by billions of dollars. But in order to tap into his newfound paper wealth, Trump would need the company's new board to remove a restriction that prevents him from selling shares or using them as collateral for the next six months. — Alan Feuer Read past editions of the newsletter here. If you're enjoying what you're reading, please consider recommending it to others. They can sign up here. Have feedback? Ideas for coverage? We'd love to hear from you. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com.
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Monday, March 25, 2024
On Politics: Who are the RFK Jr. voters?
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