Good morning. Western unity could have consequences beyond Russia's invasion of Ukraine. |
 | | Military volunteers in Ukraine last year.Brendan Hoffman for The New York Times |
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Vladimir Putin was counting on this winter — with its potential for cold weather and high energy prices — to fracture the West's alliance over Ukraine. He hoped that Americans and Europeans would ask: Is refusing Russian oil and gas really worth it? |
But the Western alliance has held up far better than Putin and many analysts expected, even as the rest of the world has largely taken a more neutral approach to the invasion. |
Today, on the first anniversary of the war, the unity of Ukraine's allies is a crucial reason that Russia continues to struggle. In just the past couple of weeks, the Russian military surprised analysts again by failing to capture the city of Vuhledar despite an aggressive offensive. |
This newsletter will explain how the West has hung together. It will also give you an overview of rich coverage from Times journalists. |
The West's initial condemnation of Russia's invasion was widely anticipated. The depth of support for Ukraine — including harsh sanctions on Russia and a huge influx of weapons to Ukraine — was another matter. Ukraine is not a member of the E.U. or NATO. It is on the edge of Europe; its capital is much closer to Moscow than to Berlin. |
And Western support has persisted even though energy prices have soared and no end to the war is in sight. Why? There are several explanations, experts said. |
The first is American leadership. The Biden administration has managed to keep its typically rowdy European allies united by building consensus through diplomatic back channels and staving off potential divisions. |
Those efforts preceded the war itself: By warning the world early last year that Russia was planning to invade, the U.S. prepared its partners to impose sanctions on Russia and send military equipment to Ukraine. When any new fractures appeared, the U.S. worked closely with allies to resolve them — and usually in favor of Ukraine, such as when the U.S. and Germany jointly agreed to send tanks. |
A second explanation is the genuine shock to Europe. In the decades after World War II, war between the continent's major powers and invasions on European soil seemed to be in the past. Russia's invasion changed that, resurrecting fears of a continent decimated by great power struggles, world wars and nuclear conflict. Images of Russia's attacks on civilians — the bombed-out buildings, dead bodies and Ukrainians on the run — have turned war from a historical horror to a present threat. |
"For much of Europe, the war ended decades of living in paradise," said Liana Fix, a fellow for Europe at the Council on Foreign Relations. |
A third explanation is Ukraine's success on the battlefield. Ukrainians' ability to hold back Russia — and actually push it out of conquered territory — has kept Western unity afloat. Without it, there would be no war effort for the West to rally around. |
 | | Zaporizhzhia, in southeastern Ukraine, in October.Nicole Tung for The New York Times |
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For all of Ukraine's successes, continued unity is far from guaranteed. |
Public support for the war effort may not last as fighting drags on. Some polls show it has already dipped, though not as much as Putin would have liked to see this winter, perhaps because Europe has been unusually warm. Some Republicans, including Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis, have already suggested they would like to reduce support for Ukraine. |
Europe's internal differences could also fracture the alliance. Germany, France and other Western European countries have generally taken a less aggressive stance on the war effort, particularly with cutting-edge weapon deliveries, than Britain and several Eastern European countries. Those divisions have already slowed some aid to Ukraine. They could eventually lead to bigger problems. |
The implications of Western unity extend beyond Ukraine. Between the rise of China and Western failures in Iraq and Afghanistan, the West looked in recent years like it was on the decline. The alliance over Ukraine has demonstrated that Western powers can still stand up for other democracies, even at great risk and cost to themselves. |
But the ultimate impact hinges on the West's continued support for Ukraine. |
Consider this all from China's perspective: If the West does not remain united to defend a democracy on its doorstep, is it really going to do much for distant Taiwan? That is the lens through which others will look at what the West has done. |
 | | A spiritual revival on a college campus.Jesse Barber for The New York Times |
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Children — especially girls — are in terrible anguish. Blame technology, not politics, Michelle Goldberg says. |
Jimmy Carter's "malaise" speech helped sink his presidency. It was also profoundly prescient, David French argues. |
Readers of The Morning can enjoy more of The Times — including breaking news and analysis, plus Games, Cooking, Wirecutter and The Athletic — with New York Times All Access. Subscribe today. |
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Advice from Wirecutter: Buying carbon offsets for your flight doesn't help. |
Lives Lived: Rick Newman opened an Upper East Side nightclub that drew crowds and helped make the careers of Robin Williams, Jay Leno and other comedians. Newman died at 81. |
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 | | The taxidermied cocaine bear.Matt Stone/Courier Journal, via Imagn Content Services |
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The movie "Cocaine Bear" is in theaters today. Though the premise may sound far-fetched — a bear gets into a cocaine stash that fell from a smuggler's plane — it's based on a true story. (The bear's bloody spree in the movie is fictional.) |
Bears will eat almost anything they can get their paws on, especially as winter approaches, when they need to gain weight. "Essentially, they're an eating machine," a biologist said. "They're constantly searching out easy, calorie-rich foods." |
 | | Bobbi Lin for The New York Times. Food stylist: Eugene Jho. |
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The pangram from yesterday's Spelling Bee was payment. Here is today's puzzle. |
Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. — German |
Matthew Cullen, Lauren Hard, Lauren Jackson, Claire Moses, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Tom Wright-Piersanti and Ashley Wu contributed to The Morning. You can reach the team at themorning@nytimes.com. |
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